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General Characteristics
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- Soybeans on crushing
and solvent extraction yield soyoil at 18% recovery and soymeal. About
85% is crushed worldwide.
- Soybean and soyoil
production of 170-185 and 25-31 million tons account for 55-58% and
25-30% of global oilseed and oil production respectively.
- US, Brazil,
Argentina, China, India are the major producers in order of
production. In US, India, China crop starts arriving from Aug-Sept,
while it starts from Jan-Feb in S. America.
- In the world 55-60,
8-10 and 42-45 million tons of beans, oil and meal are traded
annually.
- USA (20-30 million
tons), Brazil (12-18 million tons), Argentina (5-10 million tons) are
the exporters of beans, while China (18-20 million tons) and EU (15-18
million tons) are the major importers.
- Argentina (3-5
million tons) and Brazil (2-3 million tons) are the major exporters of
oil. China (1.5-2.5 million tons) and India (1-2 million tons) are the
major importers of oil.
- Crushers, refined
oil manufacturers, animal feed manufacturers and farmers are the major
stakeholders in the soy value chain worldwide.
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Important World Soy Markets
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- Chicago (CBOT),
largest soy futures market
- China, where beans
and meal are traded at Dalian Commodity Exchange
- Argentina and Brazil
FOB determine the physical prices
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Indian Scenario
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- India produces 5-7
million tons of beans, 1 million ton of oil and 3-5 million tons of
soymeal in a normal year.
- With imports, the
total oil availability in the country is around 2.5 million
tons.
- Madhya Pradesh
(3.5-4.5 million tons), Maharashtra, Rajasthan are the major producers
of soybean in India.
- The production is
highly dependent on the monsoon and fluctuates between years.
- Soy is a Kharif crop,
sown in June-July and harvested by September-October. Peak arrivals
are from October-November.
- The prices follow
the international sentiments and display very high volatility.
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India In World Soy Industry
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(Rounded figs.)
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India
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World
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% Share
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(In
million tons)
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Annual Seed Production
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6
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180
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3
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Annual Oil Production
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1
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30
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3.3
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Annual Oil Imports
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1.5
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9
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16.7
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Annual Oil Consumption
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2.5
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30
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8.3
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Annual Meal Production
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3.5
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130
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3.5
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Annual Meal Exports
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2.5
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43
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5.8
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Annual Meal Consumption
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1
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130
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0.7
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Daily Price Volatility of Refined Soyoil in
India
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Daily Volatility in %<
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< 1
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1 - 3
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> 3
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% Occurrence
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81.95
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17.69
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0.36
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Maximum Daily
Variation in 2003-04 = 3.8%
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Major Trading Centres
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Indore, Ujjain, Dewas, Mandsore in Madhya Pradesh,
Nagpur in Maharashtra, Kota in Rajasthan are major trading centres.
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Market Influencing Factors
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- Weather at all the
producing centers, domestic and international. The pod bearing period,
being the most crucial.
- The area planted,
determined by the price of soybean against that of competitive crops,
viz., maize, jowar, bajra.
- International price
movement, the futures market at CBOT being the major international
reference market.
- Pests and
diseases.
- The supply-demand
and price scenario of competitive oils, viz., palmoil.
- Demand for soymeal
from the feed sector and the entire fundamentals of this sector.
- The crush margin
between meal, oil and seed
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